After last week, the S&P 500 index is back to where it was in mid-July and about 6.5% above its June lows. Our indicators are currently keeping us neutral as there is no clear evidence that we should be overly bullish or bearish.
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The same headwinds that pushed stocks and bonds lower in the first quarter of 2022 continued in the second. However, the S&P 500 now sits at much more historically normal valuation levels, with at least some of the negative news already priced in, leaving potential for positive surprises.
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The first quarter of 2022 saw historically high inflation, international upheaval, and a faster-than-previously-expected rising interest rate environment. However, unemployment remains low, the economy is generally healthy, and consumer spending is strong, making it difficult to predict market behavior in Q2.
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Stocks overcame a resurgence in COVID cases, the Federal Reserve moving aggressively to end the current QE program, and a lack of additional government stimulus to hit new highs in the fourth quarter and produce very strong returns for 2021.
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New all-time highs in the third quarter underscored an economic recovery in spite of increases in COVID-19 cases, but political uncertainty, caution around corporate earnings, and the economic impact of the pandemic led to the S&P 500’s first 5% pullback in almost a year.
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In spite of fears about inflation, the S&P 500 reached new record highs during the second quarter of 2021 as declining COVID-19 cases and increasing vaccinations led to the country’s economic reopening.
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The markets are trading at historic highs as stimulus hits and the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines accelerates. Market valuations and investor optimism are also near historic highs as we enter what we hope to be the end of the pandemic. We are watching for signs of increasing inflation as interest rates rise, which could disrupt the uptrend. At this juncture, we are cautiously optimistic and are ready to act should the trend weaken.
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The markets posted new all-time highs in the third quarter in an unexpectedly strong rebound. Moving into the fourth quarter, the markets face continued short-term volatility as we edge into a potentially contested election, await news on COVID-19 vaccine trials, and watch the developments regarding the new stimulus bill.
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